Detroit Red Wings at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Jake WalmanGoals1
- Moritz SeiderAssists2
- J.T. CompherPoints2
Islanders- Bo HorvatGoals1
- Noah DobsonAssists2
- Bo HorvatPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:25Lucas Raymond Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (4)4–3
- P315:49Bo Horvat Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (5), Noah Dobson (7)3–3
- P311:43J.T. Compher Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (9), Andrew Copp (2)3–2
- P39:35Jake Walman Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (8), Lucas Raymond (5)2–2
- P37:55Daniel Sprong Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (2), Jake Walman (3)1–2
- P31:05Brock Nelson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (6), Pierre Engvall (4)0–2
- P218:39Casey Cizikas Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Bo Horvat (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P218:39Casey Cizikas Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Bo Horvat (3)DET 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 53% → 75% +22NYI 53% → 75%+22 pts
- P39:35Jake Walman Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (8), Lucas Raymond (5)DET 2 – 2 NYI · DET 18% → 48% +30DET 18% → 48%+30 pts
- P311:43J.T. Compher Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (9), Andrew Copp (2)DET 3 – 2 NYI · DET 48% → 83% +34DET 48% → 83%+34 pts
- P315:49Bo Horvat Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (5), Noah Dobson (7)DET 3 – 3 NYI · NYI 9% → 51% +42NYI 9% → 51%+42 pts
- OT1:25Lucas Raymond Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (4)DET 4 – 3 NYI · DET 49% → 93% +44DET 49% → 93%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 53%
- Fair odds
- NYI -121
- DET +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | −13 | DET: Ville Husso: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +24 Elo | NYI 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 314.0 | Goals scored | 2.821st of 31 |
| 13th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.9 | Margin | −0.321st of 31 |
| 18th of 3150.0% | Shot share | 45.5%26th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 92.5%4th of 31 |
| 11th of 312–2 | Road vs home | 2–218th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.