Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nick PaulGoals2
- Victor HedmanAssists2
- Nick PaulPoints2
Canadiens- Christian DvorakGoals1
- Jake EvansAssists1
- Christian DvorakPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:41Christian Dvorak Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Harris (2), Justin Barron (1)5–3
- P317:40Nicholas Paul Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (12), Steven Stamkos (10)5–2
- P37:24Michael Pezzetta Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (1), Kaiden Guhle (4)4–2
- P36:50Nick Suzuki Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (8), Sean Monahan (5)4–1
- P113:50Michael Eyssimont Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (13), Erik Cernak (3)4–0
- P19:09Alex Barré-Boulet Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (7), Mikhail Sergachev (7)3–0
- P17:15Nicholas Paul Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (9), Victor Hedman (12)2–0
- P10:22Nikita Kucherov Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (6), Brayden Point (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:22Nikita Kucherov Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (6), Brayden Point (11)TB 1 – 0 MTL · TB 40% → 55% +14TB 40% → 55%+14 pts
- P17:15Nicholas Paul Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (9), Victor Hedman (12)TB 2 – 0 MTL · TB 56% → 71% +14TB 56% → 71%+14 pts
- P19:09Alex Barré-Boulet Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (7), Mikhail Sergachev (7)TB 3 – 0 MTL · TB 72% → 83% +12TB 72% → 83%+12 pts
- P113:50Michael Eyssimont Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (13), Erik Cernak (3)TB 4 – 0 MTL · TB 85% → 93% +8TB 85% → 93%+8 pts
- P37:24Michael Pezzetta Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (1), Kaiden Guhle (4)TB 4 – 2 MTL · MTL 1% → 7% +6MTL 1% → 7%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 61%
- Fair odds
- MTL -147
- TB +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.9 – 3.4 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +3 | TB: Matt Tomkins: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MTL: Jake Allen: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +77 Elo | MTL 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 59.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.626th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.522nd of 31 |
| 25th of 3146.7% | Shot share | 46.2%27th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.9%12th of 31 |
| 30th of 311–5 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.