Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Brent BurnsGoals1
- Brent BurnsAssists1
- Brent BurnsPoints2
LightningScoring summary
- P317:54Stefan Noesen Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Michael Bunting (6), Brent Burns (3)4–0
- P311:20Brent Burns Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Brady Skjei (10)3–0
- P24:32Sebastian Aho Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (4), Jaccob Slavin (5)2–0
- P13:10Teuvo Teravainen Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (9), Martin Necas (7)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:10Teuvo Teravainen Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (9), Martin Necas (7)CAR 1 – 0 TB · CAR 41% → 56% +15CAR 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P24:32Sebastian Aho Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (4), Jaccob Slavin (5)CAR 2 – 0 TB · CAR 62% → 78% +16CAR 62% → 78%+16 pts
- P311:20Brent Burns Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Brady Skjei (10)CAR 3 – 0 TB · CAR 97% → >99% +3CAR 97% → >99%+3 pts
- P317:54Stefan Noesen Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Michael Bunting (6), Brent Burns (3)CAR 4 – 0 TB · CAR >99% → >99% +0CAR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Fair odds
- TB -144
- CAR +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.9 – 3.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −7 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +59 Elo | TB 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 59.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.85th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.623rd of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.212th of 31 |
| 1st of 3156.6% | Shot share | 47.7%23rd of 31 |
| 30th of 3187.6% | Save percentage | 89.8%20th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Road vs home | 4–311th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 0–1 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.