Carolina Hurricanes at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jesperi KotkaniemiGoals1
- Jordan MartinookAssists2
- Jordan MartinookPoints2
Panthers- Matthew TkachukGoals1
- Sam ReinhartAssists2
- Aleksander BarkovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:18Kevin Stenlund Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (8), Aleksander Barkov (9)2–5
- P313:18Carter Verhaeghe Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Forsling (2)2–4
- P216:40Sebastian Aho Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (4), Brady Skjei (9)2–3
- P27:08Aleksander Barkov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (8), Sam Reinhart (7)1–3
- P118:53Uvis Balinskis Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (10), Eetu Luostarinen (2)1–2
- P13:01Matthew Tkachuk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (4), Anton Lundell (5)1–1
- P11:20Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Fast (2), Jordan Martinook (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:20Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Fast (2), Jordan Martinook (3)CAR 1 – 0 FLA · CAR 45% → 60% +15CAR 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P13:01Matthew Tkachuk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (4), Anton Lundell (5)CAR 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 40% → 55% +15FLA 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P118:53Uvis Balinskis Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (10), Eetu Luostarinen (2)CAR 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 54% → 71% +17FLA 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P27:08Aleksander Barkov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (8), Sam Reinhart (7)CAR 1 – 3 FLA · FLA 72% → 86% +14FLA 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P216:40Sebastian Aho Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (4), Brady Skjei (9)CAR 2 – 3 FLA · CAR 11% → 25% +15CAR 11% → 25%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 55%
- Fair odds
- FLA -122
- CAR +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +3 | CAR: Antti Raanta: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +34 Elo | FLA 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 31 |
| 19th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.1 | Margin | 0.016th of 31 |
| 1st of 3157.5% | Shot share | 55.1%3rd of 31 |
| 30th of 3187.6% | Save percentage | 90.4%16th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 18th of 314–5 | Road vs home | 4–14th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.