Columbus Blue Jackets at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Alexandre TexierGoals1
- Erik GudbransonAssists2
- Alexandre TexierPoints2
Panthers- Aleksander BarkovGoals1
- Sam ReinhartAssists2
- Sam ReinhartPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:26Carter Verhaeghe Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (3), Matthew Tkachuk (8)4–5
- P319:03Nick Cousins Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–4
- P312:30Alexandre Texier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Peeke (1), Cole Sillinger (5)4–3
- P210:02Kirill Marchenko Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Ivan Provorov (9), Alexandre Texier (1)3–3
- P118:51Boone Jenner Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (5), Erik Gudbranson (2)2–3
- P115:41Sean Kuraly Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gudbranson (1), Justin Danforth (2)1–3
- P16:09Aleksander Barkov Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Sam Reinhart (5), Niko Mikkola (4)0–3
- P13:09Gustav Forsling Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (4), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (3)0–2
- P12:19Ryan Lomberg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Lorentz (1), Josh Mahura (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:19Ryan Lomberg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Lorentz (1), Josh Mahura (5)CBJ 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 55% → 69% +14FLA 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P210:02Kirill Marchenko Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Ivan Provorov (9), Alexandre Texier (1)CBJ 3 – 3 FLA · CBJ 27% → 46% +19CBJ 27% → 46%+19 pts
- P312:30Alexandre Texier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Peeke (1), Cole Sillinger (5)CBJ 4 – 3 FLA · CBJ 48% → 84% +36CBJ 48% → 84%+36 pts
- P319:03Nick Cousins Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCBJ 4 – 4 FLA · FLA <1% → 51% +51FLA <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT1:26Carter Verhaeghe Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (3), Matthew Tkachuk (8)CBJ 4 – 5 FLA · FLA 51% → 94% +42FLA 51% → 94%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 58%
- Fair odds
- FLA -125
- CBJ +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.0 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +7 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +54 Elo | FLA 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 2.624th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.5 | Margin | −0.221st of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.6% | Shot share | 54.5%3rd of 31 |
| 12th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 91.1%11th of 31 |
| 25th of 311–3 | Road vs home | 3–17th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.