Columbus Blue Jackets at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Dmitri VoronkovGoals1
- Kirill MarchenkoAssists1
- Dmitri VoronkovPoints1
Capitals- Sonny MilanoGoals1
- Rasmus SandinAssists1
- Tom WilsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P21:38Dmitri Voronkov Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Marchenko (4), David Jiricek (2)1–2
- P117:21Sonny Milano Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Jensen (2), Rasmus Sandin (1)0–2
- P112:21Tom Wilson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:21Tom Wilson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCBJ 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 55% → 70% +15WSH 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P117:21Sonny Milano Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Jensen (2), Rasmus Sandin (1)CBJ 0 – 2 WSH · WSH 71% → 83% +13WSH 71% → 83%+13 pts
- P21:38Dmitri Voronkov Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Marchenko (4), David Jiricek (2)CBJ 1 – 2 WSH · CBJ 16% → 29% +13CBJ 16% → 29%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 55%
- Fair odds
- WSH -122
- CBJ +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −3 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +36 Elo | WSH 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.7 | Goals scored | 2.130th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.5 | Margin | −1.128th of 31 |
| 17th of 3150.1% | Shot share | 50.5%15th of 31 |
| 16th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 89.0%23rd of 31 |
| 19th of 311–2 | Road vs home | 3–313th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.