New York Islanders at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Brock NelsonGoals1
- Brock NelsonAssists1
- Brock NelsonPoints2
CapitalsScoring summary
- P211:15Brock Nelson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre Engvall (5), Scott Mayfield (1)3–0
- P110:41Simon Holmstrom Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Hudson Fasching (1), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (3)2–0
- P10:22Ryan Pulock Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (2), Kyle Palmieri (5)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:22Ryan Pulock Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (2), Kyle Palmieri (5)NYI 1 – 0 WSH · NYI 45% → 60% +14NYI 45% → 60%+14 pts
- P110:41Simon Holmstrom Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Hudson Fasching (1), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (3)NYI 2 – 0 WSH · NYI 62% → 76% +14NYI 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P211:15Brock Nelson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre Engvall (5), Scott Mayfield (1)NYI 3 – 0 WSH · NYI 84% → 93% +10NYI 84% → 93%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 53%
- Fair odds
- WSH -120
- NYI +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +19 | +4 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.47 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +18 Elo | WSH 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.427th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.317th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.4 | Margin | −0.927th of 31 |
| 25th of 3146.6% | Shot share | 49.4%19th of 31 |
| 7th of 3192.0% | Save percentage | 89.3%24th of 31 |
| 12th of 311–1 | Road vs home | 3–211th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.