Florida Panthers at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Evan RodriguesGoals1
- Evan RodriguesAssists1
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonPoints2
Capitals- Connor McMichaelGoals1
- Aliaksei ProtasAssists2
- Connor McMichaelPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:15Sam Reinhart Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (8), Evan Rodrigues (7)4–3
- P33:33Evan Rodrigues Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Forsling (1), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (4)3–3
- P215:51Anthony Mantha Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (2)2–3
- P26:13Connor McMichael Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Aliaksei Protas (3), Martin Fehervary (1)2–2
- P116:45Aleksander Barkov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (6)2–1
- P112:49Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (9), Anton Lundell (4)1–1
- P110:42Anthony Mantha Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (2), Darcy Kuemper (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:45Aleksander Barkov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (6)FLA 2 – 1 WSH · FLA 46% → 63% +17FLA 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P26:13Connor McMichael Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Aliaksei Protas (3), Martin Fehervary (1)FLA 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 35% → 54% +19WSH 35% → 54%+19 pts
- P215:51Anthony Mantha Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (2)FLA 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 53% → 74% +21WSH 53% → 74%+21 pts
- P33:33Evan Rodrigues Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Forsling (1), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (4)FLA 3 – 3 WSH · FLA 22% → 48% +25FLA 22% → 48%+25 pts
- OT0:15Sam Reinhart Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (8), Evan Rodrigues (7)FLA 4 – 3 WSH · FLA 49% → 90% +41FLA 49% → 90%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 54%
- Fair odds
- WSH -121
- FLA +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +4 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +26 Elo | WSH 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 312.8 | Goals scored | 2.130th of 31 |
| 11th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 16th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.927th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.7% | Shot share | 49.7%16th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 90.0%20th of 31 |
| 19th of 312–4 | Road vs home | 4–313th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.