Buffalo Sabres at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Rasmus DahlinGoals1
- Tage ThompsonAssists1
- Alex TuchPoints1
Hurricanes- Brady SkjeiGoals1
- Sebastian AhoAssists2
- Brady SkjeiPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:30Martin Necas Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Sebastian Aho (8), Brady Skjei (8)2–3
- P39:23Rasmus Dahlin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (5), Casey Mittelstadt (9)2–2
- P37:54Brady Skjei Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (7), Dmitry Orlov (5)1–2
- P23:51Alex Tuch Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P112:43Tony DeAngelo Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:43Tony DeAngelo Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBUF 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 54% → 70% +16CAR 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P23:51Alex Tuch Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: noneBUF 1 – 1 CAR · BUF 29% → 46% +18BUF 29% → 46%+18 pts
- P37:54Brady Skjei Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (7), Dmitry Orlov (5)BUF 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 52% → 81% +29CAR 52% → 81%+29 pts
- P39:23Rasmus Dahlin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (5), Casey Mittelstadt (9)BUF 2 – 2 CAR · BUF 18% → 48% +30BUF 18% → 48%+30 pts
- OT1:30Martin Necas Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Sebastian Aho (8), Brady Skjei (8)BUF 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 51% → 94% +43CAR 51% → 94%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 54%
- Fair odds
- CAR -121
- BUF +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.0 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −7 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CAR: Antti Raanta: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +29 Elo | CAR 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.511th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.520th of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.1 | Margin | 0.016th of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.2% | Shot share | 57.6%1st of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 87.4%29th of 31 |
| 7th of 276–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 27 |
| 10th of 313–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.