Carolina Hurricanes at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Seth JarvisGoals1
- Tony DeAngeloAssists1
- Seth JarvisPoints1
Rangers- Will CuylleGoals1
- Jacob TroubaAssists1
- Chris KreiderPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:21Will Cuylle Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (3), Barclay Goodrow (1)1–2
- P19:53Seth Jarvis Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (6), Tony DeAngelo (5)1–1
- P12:41Chris Kreider Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (11)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:41Chris Kreider Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (11)CAR 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 55% → 69% +14NYR 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P19:53Seth Jarvis Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (6), Tony DeAngelo (5)CAR 1 – 1 NYR · CAR 30% → 45% +15CAR 30% → 45%+15 pts
- P310:21Will Cuylle Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (3), Barclay Goodrow (1)CAR 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 52% → 83% +31NYR 52% → 83%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 56%
- Fair odds
- NYR -123
- CAR +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.9 – 3.2 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +5 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +43 Elo | NYR 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 2.12nd of 31 |
| 15th of 310.0 | Margin | +1.15th of 31 |
| 1st of 3157.3% | Shot share | 50.4%15th of 31 |
| 31st of 3186.8% | Save percentage | 91.9%8th of 31 |
| 16th of 313–4 | Road vs home | 0–127th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.