Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jesperi KotkaniemiGoals1
- Andrei SvechnikovAssists2
- Jesperi KotkaniemiPoints2
Islanders- Mathew BarzalGoals1
- Bo HorvatAssists2
- Mathew BarzalPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:14Sebastian Aho Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (6), Brady Skjei (7)4–3
- P315:26Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (3)3–3
- P312:19Dmitry Orlov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (7), Andrei Svechnikov (2)2–3
- P28:18Jalen Chatfield Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (2), Jordan Staal (4)1–3
- P27:46Mathew Barzal Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (5), Ryan Pulock (2)0–3
- P24:11Simon Holmstrom Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (4)0–2
- P117:40Noah Dobson Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Mathew Barzal (6), Bo Horvat (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:40Noah Dobson Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Mathew Barzal (6), Bo Horvat (4)CAR 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 54% → 70% +16NYI 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P24:11Simon Holmstrom Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (4)CAR 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 71% → 85% +14NYI 71% → 85%+14 pts
- P312:19Dmitry Orlov Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (7), Andrei Svechnikov (2)CAR 2 – 3 NYI · CAR 2% → 14% +13CAR 2% → 14%+13 pts
- P315:26Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (3)CAR 3 – 3 NYI · CAR 9% → 49% +40CAR 9% → 49%+40 pts
- OT1:14Sebastian Aho Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (6), Brady Skjei (7)CAR 4 – 3 NYI · CAR 49% → 92% +44CAR 49% → 92%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 54%
- Fair odds
- NYI -121
- CAR +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −16 | CAR: Antti Raanta: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.39 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +27 Elo | NYI 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 31 |
| 24th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.1 | Margin | 0.017th of 31 |
| 1st of 3156.8% | Shot share | 45.9%28th of 31 |
| 30th of 3187.3% | Save percentage | 92.9%4th of 31 |
| 18th of 313–5 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.