Winnipeg Jets at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals2
- Alex IafalloAssists4
- Alex IafalloPoints4
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals1
- Tyler TuckerAssists1
- Brayden SchennPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:32Cole Perfetti Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (9)5–2
- P38:08Brayden Schenn Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Torey Krug (1), Justin Faulk (4)4–2
- P31:02Kyle Connor Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (7), Alex Iafallo (6)4–1
- P24:34Kyle Connor Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (8), Alex Iafallo (5)3–1
- P116:55Robert Thomas Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Tucker (1), Kasperi Kapanen (4)2–1
- P116:15Neal Pionk Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (6), Alex Iafallo (4)2–0
- P18:44Mark Scheifele Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (3), Kyle Connor (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:44Mark Scheifele Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (3), Kyle Connor (4)WPG 1 – 0 STL · WPG 45% → 61% +16WPG 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P116:15Neal Pionk Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (6), Alex Iafallo (4)WPG 2 – 0 STL · WPG 62% → 77% +15WPG 62% → 77%+15 pts
- P116:55Robert Thomas Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Tucker (1), Kasperi Kapanen (4)WPG 2 – 1 STL · STL 23% → 38% +15STL 23% → 38%+15 pts
- P24:34Kyle Connor Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (8), Alex Iafallo (5)WPG 3 – 1 STL · WPG 64% → 80% +16WPG 64% → 80%+16 pts
- P31:02Kyle Connor Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (7), Alex Iafallo (6)WPG 4 – 1 STL · WPG 89% → 97% +8WPG 89% → 97%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 57%
- Fair odds
- STL -124
- WPG +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +1 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +47 Elo | STL 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.627th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.45th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.5 | Margin | +0.114th of 31 |
| 8th of 3153.4% | Shot share | 46.2%26th of 31 |
| 25th of 3188.8% | Save percentage | 93.0%4th of 31 |
| 17th of 312–3 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 1–0 STL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.