St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Brayden SchennGoals3
- Robert ThomasAssists4
- Brayden SchennPoints4
Avalanche- Jack JohnsonGoals1
- Jonathan DrouinAssists1
- Jack JohnsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:32Jack Johnson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (2)8–2
- P319:11Alexey Toropchenko Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (5)8–1
- P315:57Pavel Buchnevich Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Robert Thomas (9)7–1
- P32:49Brayden Schenn Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (8), Jordan Kyrou (5)6–1
- P31:20Pavel Buchnevich Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (7), Brayden Schenn (4)5–1
- P216:07Mikko Rantanen Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (13), Nathan MacKinnon (9)4–1
- P211:52Pavel Buchnevich Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (4), Colton Parayko (2)4–0
- P119:58Torey Krug Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (6), Justin Faulk (6)3–0
- P118:53Brayden Schenn Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Saad (2)2–0
- P11:08Brayden Schenn Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Torey Krug (3), Justin Faulk (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:08Brayden Schenn Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Torey Krug (3), Justin Faulk (5)STL 1 – 0 COL · STL 45% → 59% +15STL 45% → 59%+15 pts
- P118:53Brayden Schenn Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Saad (2)STL 2 – 0 COL · STL 63% → 78% +15STL 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P119:58Torey Krug Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (6), Justin Faulk (6)STL 3 – 0 COL · STL 78% → 89% +11STL 78% → 89%+11 pts
- P211:52Pavel Buchnevich Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (4), Colton Parayko (2)STL 4 – 0 COL · STL 93% → 98% +5STL 93% → 98%+5 pts
- P216:07Mikko Rantanen Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (13), Nathan MacKinnon (9)STL 4 – 1 COL · COL 1% → 5% +4COL 1% → 5%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 56%
- Fair odds
- COL -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −9 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +45 Elo | COL 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.58th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.3% | Shot share | 54.5%5th of 31 |
| 5th of 3192.5% | Save percentage | 89.9%20th of 31 |
| 28th of 311–4 | Road vs home | 4–15th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–1 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.