Seattle Kraken at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Oliver BjorkstrandGoals2
- Adam LarssonAssists2
- Oliver BjorkstrandPoints2
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists2
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:28Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (5), Adam Larsson (2)4–3
- P312:15Valeri Nichushkin Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Devon Toews (4), Nathan MacKinnon (8)3–3
- P215:40Nathan MacKinnon Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (12), Mikko Rantanen (10)3–2
- P211:35Matty Beniers Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (10), Jaden Schwartz (6)3–1
- P24:57Bowen Byram Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (7), Artturi Lehkonen (5)2–1
- P24:29Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (3), Adam Larsson (1)2–0
- P118:39Jaden Schwartz Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (2), Vince Dunn (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:39Jaden Schwartz Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (2), Vince Dunn (9)SEA 1 – 0 COL · SEA 45% → 62% +17SEA 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P211:35Matty Beniers Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (10), Jaden Schwartz (6)SEA 3 – 1 COL · SEA 66% → 83% +17SEA 66% → 83%+17 pts
- P215:40Nathan MacKinnon Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (12), Mikko Rantanen (10)SEA 3 – 2 COL · COL 15% → 32% +17COL 15% → 32%+17 pts
- P312:15Valeri Nichushkin Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Devon Toews (4), Nathan MacKinnon (8)SEA 3 – 3 COL · COL 17% → 52% +35COL 17% → 52%+35 pts
- P319:28Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (5), Adam Larsson (2)SEA 4 – 3 COL · SEA 49% → >99% +51SEA 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 61%
- Fair odds
- COL -129
- SEA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +3 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Ivan Prosvetov: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +81 Elo | COL 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.512th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.9 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 20th of 3148.8% | Shot share | 54.5%7th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 90.4%15th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 24th of 312–5 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 0–1 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.