Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Mikael BacklundGoals2
- Dillon DubeAssists1
- Mikael BacklundPoints2
Kraken- Eeli TolvanenGoals1
- Yanni GourdeAssists2
- Yanni GourdePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:39Rasmus Andersson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–3
- P319:12Mikael Backlund Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none5–3
- P318:29Jaden Schwartz Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Matty Beniers (4), Vince Dunn (8)4–3
- P34:00Mikael Backlund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Walker Duehr (3), A.J. Greer (2)4–2
- P31:33Yegor Sharangovich Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Nikita Zadorov (3), Nick DeSimone (1)3–2
- P219:00Noah Hanifin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (4), Connor Zary (1)2–2
- P116:22Eeli Tolvanen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (4), Devin Shore (1)1–2
- P113:59Martin Pospisil Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (4), Dillon Dube (3)1–1
- P19:56Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Schultz (4), Yanni Gourde (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:59Martin Pospisil Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (4), Dillon Dube (3)CGY 1 – 1 SEA · CGY 29% → 45% +16CGY 29% → 45%+16 pts
- P116:22Eeli Tolvanen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (4), Devin Shore (1)CGY 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 55% → 71% +16SEA 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P219:00Noah Hanifin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (4), Connor Zary (1)CGY 2 – 2 SEA · CGY 24% → 47% +22CGY 24% → 47%+22 pts
- P31:33Yegor Sharangovich Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Nikita Zadorov (3), Nick DeSimone (1)CGY 3 – 2 SEA · CGY 47% → 72% +25CGY 47% → 72%+25 pts
- P34:00Mikael Backlund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Walker Duehr (3), A.J. Greer (2)CGY 4 – 2 SEA · CGY 74% → 91% +17CGY 74% → 91%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Fair odds
- SEA -126
- CGY +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −2 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +57 Elo | SEA 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.2 | Goals scored | 2.527th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.8 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.6 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.9% | Shot share | 49.5%18th of 31 |
| 27th of 3188.6% | Save percentage | 91.0%14th of 31 |
| 27th of 311–4 | Road vs home | 2–215th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.