Nashville Predators at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Tommy NovakGoals1
- Luke EvangelistaAssists1
- Roman JosiPoints1
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals1
- Justin SchultzAssists2
- Jared McCannPoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:38Vince Dunn Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (5), Alex Wennberg (3)2–4
- P216:58Brian Dumoulin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Schultz (3), Tye Kartye (1)2–3
- P216:34Roman Josi Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Tyson Barrie (5), Filip Forsberg (8)2–2
- P117:41Jared McCann Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (2)1–2
- P115:21Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Schultz (2), Jared McCann (3)1–1
- P16:35Tommy Novak Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (1), Luke Evangelista (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:35Tommy Novak Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (1), Luke Evangelista (5)NSH 1 – 0 SEA · NSH 46% → 61% +15NSH 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P115:21Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Schultz (2), Jared McCann (3)NSH 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 37% → 54% +17SEA 37% → 54%+17 pts
- P117:41Jared McCann Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (2)NSH 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 54% → 70% +16SEA 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P216:34Roman Josi Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Tyson Barrie (5), Filip Forsberg (8)NSH 2 – 2 SEA · NSH 26% → 47% +22NSH 26% → 47%+22 pts
- P216:58Brian Dumoulin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Schultz (3), Tye Kartye (1)NSH 2 – 3 SEA · SEA 53% → 74% +22SEA 53% → 74%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- NSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −8 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +8 Elo | SEA 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 312.8 | Goals scored | 2.426th of 31 |
| 10th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.424th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −1.027th of 31 |
| 13th of 3152.0% | Shot share | 49.7%18th of 31 |
| 20th of 3190.7% | Save percentage | 90.7%18th of 31 |
| 24th of 311–3 | Road vs home | 1–224th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 1–0 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.