Nashville Predators at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Colton SissonsGoals1
- Liam FoudyAssists1
- Colton SissonsPoints1
Canucks- Elias PetterssonGoals3
- Quinn HughesAssists3
- Elias PetterssonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:02Elias Pettersson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (3), Tyler Myers (3)2–5
- P34:11J.T. Miller Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Brock Boeser (4), Quinn Hughes (8)2–4
- P216:38Elias Pettersson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (5), Filip Hronek (8)2–3
- P20:53Elias Pettersson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (7), Ilya Mikheyev (2)2–2
- P116:40Dante Fabbro Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (7), Ryan O'Reilly (3)2–1
- P116:10Colton Sissons Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (5), Liam Foudy (1)1–1
- P113:45Sam Lafferty Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Quinn Hughes (6), Anthony Beauvillier (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:45Sam Lafferty Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Quinn Hughes (6), Anthony Beauvillier (2)NSH 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 55% → 71% +16VAN 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P116:10Colton Sissons Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (5), Liam Foudy (1)NSH 1 – 1 VAN · NSH 29% → 45% +16NSH 29% → 45%+16 pts
- P116:40Dante Fabbro Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (7), Ryan O'Reilly (3)NSH 2 – 1 VAN · NSH 45% → 62% +17NSH 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P20:53Elias Pettersson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (7), Ilya Mikheyev (2)NSH 2 – 2 VAN · VAN 37% → 55% +18VAN 37% → 55%+18 pts
- P216:38Elias Pettersson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (5), Filip Hronek (8)NSH 2 – 3 VAN · VAN 54% → 75% +21VAN 54% → 75%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 59%
- Fair odds
- VAN -127
- NSH +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.9 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +19 | NSH: Kevin Lankinen (no track record yet) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.46 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +65 Elo | VAN 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.95th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 2.45th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +1.53rd of 31 |
| 10th of 3152.0% | Shot share | 48.3%23rd of 31 |
| 12th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 92.2%5th of 31 |
| 16th of 311–2 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 0–1 VAN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.