New Jersey Devils at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Dougie HamiltonGoals1
- Dougie HamiltonAssists1
- Dougie HamiltonPoints2
Avalanche- Mikko RantanenGoals2
- Cale MakarAssists3
- Mikko RantanenPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:33Mikko Rantanen Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–6
- P39:45Nathan MacKinnon Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Mikko Rantanen (9), Cale Makar (11)3–5
- P37:37Ryan Johansen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–4
- P215:04Dougie Hamilton Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (5), Ondrej Palat (4)3–3
- P211:45Miles Wood Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (6), Cale Makar (10)2–3
- P211:04Timo Meier Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (12), Dougie Hamilton (5)2–2
- P22:25Ross Colton Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Miles Wood (2), Logan O'Connor (2)1–2
- P115:50Mikko Rantanen Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (9), Nathan MacKinnon (6)1–1
- P13:43Tyler Toffoli Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: John Marino (8), Michael McLeod (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:25Ross Colton Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Miles Wood (2), Logan O'Connor (2)NJ 1 – 2 COL · COL 54% → 71% +17COL 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P211:04Timo Meier Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (12), Dougie Hamilton (5)NJ 2 – 2 COL · NJ 27% → 47% +20NJ 27% → 47%+20 pts
- P211:45Miles Wood Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (6), Cale Makar (10)NJ 2 – 3 COL · COL 53% → 73% +20COL 53% → 73%+20 pts
- P215:04Dougie Hamilton Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (5), Ondrej Palat (4)NJ 3 – 3 COL · NJ 26% → 47% +21NJ 26% → 47%+21 pts
- P37:37Ryan Johansen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 3 – 4 COL · COL 52% → 80% +28COL 52% → 80%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 53%
- Fair odds
- COL -120
- NJ +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −11 | NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +22 Elo | COL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 314.0 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.410th of 31 |
| 10th of 3152.5% | Shot share | 54.2%5th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 90.7%13th of 31 |
| 3rd of 314–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.