St. Louis Blues at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Pavel BuchnevichGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists1
- Pavel BuchnevichPoints1
Sharks- Mike HoffmanGoals2
- Ryan CarpenterAssists2
- Mike HoffmanPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:55Pavel Buchnevich Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (8), Robert Thomas (11)1–5
- P213:45Mike Hoffman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Zadina (2), Nikita Okhotiuk (3)0–5
- P23:25Luke Kunin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Givani Smith (2), Ryan Carpenter (3)0–4
- P22:39Givani Smith Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (2), Ryan Carpenter (2)0–3
- P20:17William Eklund Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Nikita Okhotiuk (2)0–2
- P12:02Mike Hoffman Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Sturm (2), Filip Zadina (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:02Mike Hoffman Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Sturm (2), Filip Zadina (1)STL 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 52% → 67% +14SJ 52% → 67%+14 pts
- P20:17William Eklund Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Nikita Okhotiuk (2)STL 0 – 2 SJ · SJ 69% → 83% +14SJ 69% → 83%+14 pts
- P22:39Givani Smith Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (2), Ryan Carpenter (2)STL 0 – 3 SJ · SJ 83% → 92% +9SJ 83% → 92%+9 pts
- P23:25Luke Kunin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Givani Smith (2), Ryan Carpenter (3)STL 0 – 4 SJ · SJ 93% → 97% +5SJ 93% → 97%+5 pts
- P213:45Mike Hoffman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Zadina (2), Nikita Okhotiuk (3)STL 0 – 5 SJ · SJ 99% → >99% +1SJ 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 42%
- Fair odds
- SJ -110
- STL +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.1 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −18 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.45 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +56 Elo | STL 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 1.331st of 31 |
| 5th of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 4.531st of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.8 | Margin | −3.231st of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.4% | Shot share | 38.7%31st of 31 |
| 2nd of 3193.3% | Save percentage | 88.7%27th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 31 |
| 22nd of 312–4 | Road vs home | 2–729th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.