Edmonton Oilers at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsGoals1
- Evan BouchardAssists1
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPoints1
Sharks- Fabian ZetterlundGoals1
- Fabian ZetterlundAssists1
- Fabian ZetterlundPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:34Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (8), Mattias Ekholm (3)2–3
- P31:53Filip Zadina Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Sturm (1), Ryan Carpenter (1)1–3
- P29:05Tomas Hertl Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (2), Nikita Okhotiuk (1)1–2
- P21:56Darnell Nurse Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (10), Warren Foegele (3)1–1
- P118:35Fabian Zetterlund Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (7), William Eklund (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:35Fabian Zetterlund Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (7), William Eklund (2)EDM 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 53% → 70% +17SJ 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P21:56Darnell Nurse Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (10), Warren Foegele (3)EDM 1 – 1 SJ · EDM 30% → 47% +17EDM 30% → 47%+17 pts
- P29:05Tomas Hertl Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (2), Nikita Okhotiuk (1)EDM 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 53% → 72% +19SJ 53% → 72%+19 pts
- P31:53Filip Zadina Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Sturm (1), Ryan Carpenter (1)EDM 1 – 3 SJ · SJ 76% → 92% +15SJ 76% → 92%+15 pts
- P317:34Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (8), Mattias Ekholm (3)EDM 2 – 3 SJ · EDM <1% → 3% +3EDM <1% → 3%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 50%
- Fair odds
- SJ -117
- EDM +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −21 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.54 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +3 Elo | EDM 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 1.231st of 31 |
| 30th of 314.3 | Goals allowed | 4.731st of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.6 | Margin | −3.531st of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.8% | Shot share | 39.7%31st of 31 |
| 31st of 3186.4% | Save percentage | 88.2%28th of 31 |
| 30th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 31 |
| 28th of 311–4 | Road vs home | 1–629th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.