Nashville Predators at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals3
- Filip ForsbergAssists2
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints4
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals1
- Mattias EkholmAssists1
- Zach HymanPoints1
Scoring summary
- P38:22Ryan O'Reilly Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (4), Alexandre Carrier (4)5–2
- P215:15Tommy Novak Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (6), Roman Josi (6)4–2
- P25:08Zach Hyman Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Evan Bouchard (7), Connor McDavid (8)3–2
- P23:24Ryan O'Reilly Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (10), Tommy Novak (3)3–1
- P20:23Ryan O'Reilly Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (9), Alexandre Carrier (3)2–1
- P110:22Filip Forsberg Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (4), Marc Del Gaizo (1)1–1
- P19:57Darnell Nurse Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (2), Ryan McLeod (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:22Filip Forsberg Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (4), Marc Del Gaizo (1)NSH 1 – 1 EDM · NSH 31% → 46% +15NSH 31% → 46%+15 pts
- P20:23Ryan O'Reilly Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (9), Alexandre Carrier (3)NSH 2 – 1 EDM · NSH 46% → 64% +18NSH 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P23:24Ryan O'Reilly Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (10), Tommy Novak (3)NSH 3 – 1 EDM · NSH 65% → 80% +15NSH 65% → 80%+15 pts
- P25:08Zach Hyman Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Evan Bouchard (7), Connor McDavid (8)NSH 3 – 2 EDM · EDM 19% → 35% +16EDM 19% → 35%+16 pts
- P215:15Tommy Novak Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (6), Roman Josi (6)NSH 4 – 2 EDM · NSH 69% → 86% +17NSH 69% → 86%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 52%
- Fair odds
- EDM -119
- NSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.2 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | −26 | NSH: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · EDM: Jack Campbell: team allows 0.66 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +13 Elo | EDM 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.7 | Goals scored | 2.822nd of 31 |
| 10th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 4.029th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.3 | Margin | −1.229th of 31 |
| 13th of 3152.0% | Shot share | 52.8%9th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 86.9%31st of 31 |
| 26th of 311–4 | Road vs home | 0–428th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 0–1 EDM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.