Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Roope HintzGoals2
- Joe PavelskiAssists2
- Roope HintzPoints3
Oilers- Sam GagnerGoals2
- Evander KaneAssists1
- Sam GagnerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:36Sam Gagner Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Evander Kane (5)4–3
- P310:35Sam Gagner Goal (1) Poke, assists: Cody Ceci (2), Brett Kulak (1)4–2
- P32:37Roope Hintz Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (6), Jason Robertson (6)4–1
- P216:06Roope Hintz Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Joe Pavelski (5), Jamie Benn (6)3–1
- P23:25Joe Pavelski Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (6), Miro Heiskanen (4)2–1
- P117:00Evander Kane Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (6)1–1
- P18:08Matt Duchene Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (2), Esa Lindell (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:08Matt Duchene Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (2), Esa Lindell (2)DAL 1 – 0 EDM · DAL 41% → 57% +16DAL 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P117:00Evander Kane Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (6)DAL 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 41% → 58% +17EDM 41% → 58%+17 pts
- P23:25Joe Pavelski Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (6), Miro Heiskanen (4)DAL 2 – 1 EDM · DAL 43% → 61% +18DAL 43% → 61%+18 pts
- P216:06Roope Hintz Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Joe Pavelski (5), Jamie Benn (6)DAL 3 – 1 EDM · DAL 67% → 84% +18DAL 67% → 84%+18 pts
- P313:36Sam Gagner Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Evander Kane (5)DAL 4 – 3 EDM · EDM 2% → 15% +13EDM 2% → 15%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 59%
- Fair odds
- EDM -145
- DAL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.8 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +6 | DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +64 Elo | EDM 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 59.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 31 |
| 8th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 4.030th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −1.329th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3147.6% | Shot share | 51.0%14th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3192.7% | Save percentage | 87.1%31st of 31 |
| 7th of 313–1 | Road vs home | 0–328th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.