Edmonton Oilers at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Mattias EkholmGoals1
- Sam GagnerAssists1
- Mattias EkholmPoints1
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals2
- Quinn HughesAssists3
- Quinn HughesPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:04Brock Boeser Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (15), Quinn Hughes (15)2–6
- P37:51J.T. Miller Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (14), Filip Hronek (13)2–5
- P210:52Nils Hoglander Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Lafferty (3)2–4
- P27:38Leon Draisaitl Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (2)2–3
- P114:52Brock Boeser Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (11), Quinn Hughes (13)1–3
- P113:22Pius Suter Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (2), Ian Cole (2)1–2
- P111:30Quinn Hughes Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (7), Filip Hronek (12)1–1
- P16:42Mattias Ekholm Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Gagner (1), Evander Kane (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:42Mattias Ekholm Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Gagner (1), Evander Kane (6)EDM 1 – 0 VAN · EDM 44% → 59% +15EDM 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P111:30Quinn Hughes Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (7), Filip Hronek (12)EDM 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 40% → 56% +16VAN 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P113:22Pius Suter Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (2), Ian Cole (2)EDM 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 56% → 71% +15VAN 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P27:38Leon Draisaitl Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (2)EDM 2 – 3 VAN · EDM 13% → 27% +14EDM 13% → 27%+14 pts
- P210:52Nils Hoglander Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Lafferty (3)EDM 2 – 4 VAN · VAN 74% → 88% +14VAN 74% → 88%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 64%
- Fair odds
- VAN -132
- EDM +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.9 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +25 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.63 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +100 Elo | VAN 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 4.41st of 31 |
| 29th of 314.1 | Goals allowed | 2.02nd of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.4 | Margin | +2.41st of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.6% | Shot share | 48.8%21st of 31 |
| 31st of 3186.7% | Save percentage | 93.4%2nd of 31 |
| 25th of 311–3 | Road vs home | 4–16th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 0–2 VAN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.