Dallas Stars at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars
Canucks- Elias PetterssonGoals1
- Carson SoucyAssists1
- Elias PetterssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P215:54Elias Pettersson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (11), Ilya Mikheyev (3)0–2
- P24:21Pius Suter Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (1), Carson Soucy (3)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:21Pius Suter Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (1), Carson Soucy (3)DAL 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 54% → 72% +18VAN 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P215:54Elias Pettersson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (11), Ilya Mikheyev (3)DAL 0 – 2 VAN · VAN 75% → 89% +15VAN 75% → 89%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 57%
- Fair odds
- VAN -125
- DAL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | +21 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.52 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +51 Elo | VAN 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 4.61st of 31 |
| 7th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.23rd of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.7 | Margin | +2.41st of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.0% | Shot share | 48.6%22nd of 31 |
| 3rd of 3192.9% | Save percentage | 92.8%4th of 31 |
| 3rd of 314–1 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.