Florida Panthers at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Aleksander BarkovGoals1
- Matthew TkachukAssists2
- Aleksander BarkovPoints2
Sharks- Luke KuninGoals1
- Mikael GranlundAssists2
- Mikael GranlundPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:47Aleksander Barkov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (5), Sam Reinhart (11)5–3
- P311:09Kevin Stenlund Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Uvis Balinskis (1), Steven Lorentz (2)4–3
- P310:06Carter Verhaeghe Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (14), Aleksander Barkov (10)3–3
- P37:21Luke Kunin Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Danil Gushchin (1), Mikael Granlund (3)2–3
- P36:11Tomas Hertl Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (3), Mikael Granlund (2)2–2
- P212:09Sam Reinhart Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (6), Matthew Tkachuk (13)2–1
- P115:58Mike Hoffman Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Givani Smith (1), Jan Rutta (1)1–1
- P112:34Ryan Lomberg Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:09Sam Reinhart Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (6), Matthew Tkachuk (13)FLA 2 – 1 SJ · FLA 48% → 69% +21FLA 48% → 69%+21 pts
- P36:11Tomas Hertl Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (3), Mikael Granlund (2)FLA 2 – 2 SJ · SJ 23% → 51% +28SJ 23% → 51%+28 pts
- P37:21Luke Kunin Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Danil Gushchin (1), Mikael Granlund (3)FLA 2 – 3 SJ · SJ 51% → 80% +28SJ 51% → 80%+28 pts
- P310:06Carter Verhaeghe Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (14), Aleksander Barkov (10)FLA 3 – 3 SJ · FLA 18% → 49% +31FLA 18% → 49%+31 pts
- P311:09Kevin Stenlund Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Uvis Balinskis (1), Steven Lorentz (2)FLA 4 – 3 SJ · FLA 49% → 82% +33FLA 49% → 82%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 45%
- Fair odds
- SJ -113
- FLA +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −11 | FLA: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +33 Elo | FLA 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 1.231st of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 4.531st of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −3.331st of 31 |
| 2nd of 3154.9% | Shot share | 38.5%31st of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 88.9%26th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 31 |
| 19th of 313–4 | Road vs home | 2–627th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 1–0 SJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.