San Jose Sharks at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Luke KuninGoals1
- William EklundAssists1
- Luke KuninPoints1
Ducks- Frank VatranoGoals2
- Ryan StromeAssists2
- Frank VatranoPoints3
Scoring summary
- P32:41Radko Gudas Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (12), Frank Vatrano (4)1–4
- P31:52Mason McTavish Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (2), Pavel Mintyukov (9)1–3
- P118:22Frank Vatrano Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (7), Jakob Silfverberg (3)1–2
- P113:05Luke Kunin Goal (2) Batted, assists: Tomas Hertl (8), William Eklund (3)1–1
- P14:49Frank Vatrano Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Ilya Lyubushkin (2), Ryan Strome (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:49Frank Vatrano Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Ilya Lyubushkin (2), Ryan Strome (11)SJ 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 57% → 71% +14ANA 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P113:05Luke Kunin Goal (2) Batted, assists: Tomas Hertl (8), William Eklund (3)SJ 1 – 1 ANA · SJ 29% → 44% +15SJ 29% → 44%+15 pts
- P118:22Frank Vatrano Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (7), Jakob Silfverberg (3)SJ 1 – 2 ANA · ANA 56% → 72% +16ANA 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P31:52Mason McTavish Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (2), Pavel Mintyukov (9)SJ 1 – 3 ANA · ANA 78% → 92% +15ANA 78% → 92%+15 pts
- P32:41Radko Gudas Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (12), Frank Vatrano (4)SJ 1 – 4 ANA · ANA 93% → 98% +6ANA 93% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 64%
- Fair odds
- ANA -132
- SJ +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.3 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +5 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +99 Elo | ANA 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 311.2 | Goals scored | 3.218th of 31 |
| 31st of 314.5 | Goals allowed | 3.214th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−3.3 | Margin | 0.015th of 31 |
| 31st of 3138.6% | Shot share | 45.9%29th of 31 |
| 27th of 3188.7% | Save percentage | 91.4%10th of 31 |
| 28th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 31st of 310–6 | Road vs home | 2–425th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.