San Jose Sharks at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks
Golden Knights- Alec MartinezGoals2
- Alex PietrangeloAssists2
- Alex PietrangeloPoints3
Scoring summary
- P39:34Brett Howden Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Rondbjerg (2)0–5
- P34:40Alec Martinez Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (8), William Karlsson (10)0–4
- P32:24William Karlsson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (9), Alex Pietrangelo (7)0–3
- P111:19Alec Martinez Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (6), William Carrier (1)0–2
- P11:00Alex Pietrangelo Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Michael Amadio (5), Mark Stone (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:00Alex Pietrangelo Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Michael Amadio (5), Mark Stone (10)SJ 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 62% → 75% +13VGK 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P111:19Alec Martinez Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (6), William Carrier (1)SJ 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 75% → 86% +11VGK 75% → 86%+11 pts
- P32:24William Karlsson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (9), Alex Pietrangelo (7)SJ 0 – 3 VGK · VGK 93% → 99% +5VGK 93% → 99%+5 pts
- P34:40Alec Martinez Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (8), William Karlsson (10)SJ 0 – 4 VGK · VGK 99% → >99% +1VGK 99% → >99%+1 pts
- P39:34Brett Howden Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Rondbjerg (2)SJ 0 – 5 VGK · VGK >99% → >99% +0VGK >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 72%
- Fair odds
- VGK -162
- SJ +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.8 – 3.5 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −19 | +8 | SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.46 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +161 Elo | VGK 71.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 61.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 311.3 | Goals scored | 3.84th of 31 |
| 31st of 314.5 | Goals allowed | 2.34th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−3.2 | Margin | +1.52nd of 31 |
| 31st of 3139.0% | Shot share | 49.5%17th of 31 |
| 24th of 3188.8% | Save percentage | 92.9%3rd of 31 |
| 30th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 31st of 310–5 | Road vs home | 7–27th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 0–1 VGK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.