Chicago Blackhawks at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals2
- Lukas ReichelAssists1
- Connor BedardPoints2
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals2
- Sam ReinhartAssists2
- Sam ReinhartPoints4
Scoring summary
- P32:44Carter Verhaeghe Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (10), Matthew Tkachuk (12)3–4
- P28:18Connor Bedard Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (6)3–3
- P27:00Sam Reinhart Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Gustav Forsling (3), Evan Rodrigues (10)2–3
- P119:04Connor Bedard Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P111:54Sam Reinhart Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (11), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (5)1–2
- P17:04Jason Dickinson Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Lukas Reichel (2), Connor Murphy (2)1–1
- P10:39Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Sam Reinhart (9), Evan Rodrigues (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:54Sam Reinhart Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (11), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (5)CHI 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 55% → 70% +15FLA 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P119:04Connor Bedard Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCHI 2 – 2 FLA · CHI 29% → 45% +17CHI 29% → 45%+17 pts
- P27:00Sam Reinhart Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Gustav Forsling (3), Evan Rodrigues (10)CHI 2 – 3 FLA · FLA 54% → 72% +18FLA 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P28:18Connor Bedard Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (6)CHI 3 – 3 FLA · CHI 27% → 46% +19CHI 27% → 46%+19 pts
- P32:44Carter Verhaeghe Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (10), Matthew Tkachuk (12)CHI 3 – 4 FLA · FLA 53% → 77% +25FLA 53% → 77%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 58%
- Fair odds
- FLA -125
- CHI +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 3.0 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +5 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +53 Elo | FLA 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.211th of 31 |
| 30th of 3143.1% | Shot share | 55.0%2nd of 31 |
| 7th of 3192.0% | Save percentage | 90.6%12th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 11th of 314–3 | Road vs home | 5–13rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–0 FLA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.