Florida Panthers at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals1
- Aleksander BarkovAssists1
- Sam ReinhartPoints1
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals1
- Kevin FialaAssists1
- Kevin FialaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:45Sam Reinhart Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (6), Aleksander Barkov (11)1–2
- P213:53Anze Kopitar Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (13), Drew Doughty (3)0–2
- P11:20Kevin Fiala Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Phillip Danault (6), Trevor Moore (6)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:20Kevin Fiala Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Phillip Danault (6), Trevor Moore (6)FLA 0 – 1 LA · LA 55% → 69% +14LA 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P213:53Anze Kopitar Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (13), Drew Doughty (3)FLA 0 – 2 LA · LA 74% → 88% +14LA 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P311:45Sam Reinhart Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (6), Aleksander Barkov (11)FLA 1 – 2 LA · FLA 2% → 15% +13FLA 2% → 15%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 56%
- Fair odds
- LA -123
- FLA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.3 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +13 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +40 Elo | LA 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.85th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +0.86th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3155.1% | Shot share | 54.3%4th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 90.4%13th of 31 |
| 2nd of 318–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 13th of 314–4 | Road vs home | 0–631st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.