Anaheim Ducks at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Max JonesGoals1
- Radko GudasAssists1
- Max JonesPoints1
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals2
- Cale MakarAssists3
- Joel KivirantaPoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:18Devon Toews Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (17), Nathan MacKinnon (14)2–8
- P313:34Andrew Cogliano Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Kiviranta (2), Jack Johnson (3)2–7
- P313:13Joel Kiviranta Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (2), Alexandar Georgiev (1)2–6
- P39:41Max Jones Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (5), Jakob Silfverberg (4)2–5
- P35:51Valeri Nichushkin Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (16), Nathan MacKinnon (13)1–5
- P33:53Ross Colton Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (4), Miles Wood (3)1–4
- P214:33Fredrik Olofsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (3), Joel Kiviranta (1)1–3
- P119:27Sam Carrick Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Radko Gudas (3), Brock McGinn (1)1–2
- P112:40Valeri Nichushkin Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Devon Toews (7), Cale Makar (15)0–2
- P16:40Samuel Girard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Johnson (2), Tomas Tatar (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:40Samuel Girard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Johnson (2), Tomas Tatar (7)ANA 0 – 1 COL · COL 59% → 73% +14COL 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P112:40Valeri Nichushkin Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Devon Toews (7), Cale Makar (15)ANA 0 – 2 COL · COL 73% → 85% +12COL 73% → 85%+12 pts
- P119:27Sam Carrick Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Radko Gudas (3), Brock McGinn (1)ANA 1 – 2 COL · ANA 14% → 26% +12ANA 14% → 26%+12 pts
- P214:33Fredrik Olofsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (3), Joel Kiviranta (1)ANA 1 – 3 COL · COL 76% → 90% +14COL 76% → 90%+14 pts
- P33:53Ross Colton Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (4), Miles Wood (3)ANA 1 – 4 COL · COL 94% → 99% +5COL 94% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 60%
- Fair odds
- COL -146
- ANA +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −12 | −13 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +70 Elo | COL 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 31 |
| 11th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 26th of 3147.1% | Shot share | 54.3%4th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.9% | Save percentage | 89.2%24th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 2nd of 315–1 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.