Colorado Avalanche at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Mikko RantanenGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists3
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints3
Kraken- Brandon TanevGoals1
- Vince DunnAssists1
- Brandon TanevPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:43Valeri Nichushkin Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (14), Nathan MacKinnon (12)5–1
- P39:09Jonathan Drouin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (11), Mikko Rantanen (11)4–1
- P34:14Cale Makar Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Tatar (6), Caleb Jones (1)3–1
- P214:12Ross Colton Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Tatar (5), Devon Toews (6)2–1
- P212:05Mikko Rantanen Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (10), Devon Toews (5)1–1
- P16:13Brandon Tanev Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Vince Dunn (12), Alex Wennberg (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:13Brandon Tanev Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Vince Dunn (12), Alex Wennberg (4)COL 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 55% → 69% +15SEA 55% → 69%+15 pts
- P212:05Mikko Rantanen Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (10), Devon Toews (5)COL 1 – 1 SEA · COL 27% → 47% +20COL 27% → 47%+20 pts
- P214:12Ross Colton Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Tatar (5), Devon Toews (6)COL 2 – 1 SEA · COL 47% → 68% +22COL 47% → 68%+22 pts
- P34:14Cale Makar Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Tatar (6), Caleb Jones (1)COL 3 – 1 SEA · COL 74% → 91% +17COL 74% → 91%+17 pts
- P39:09Jonathan Drouin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (11), Mikko Rantanen (11)COL 4 – 1 SEA · COL 95% → >99% +4COL 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Fair odds
- SEA -122
- COL +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −21 | +3 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.52 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +34 Elo | SEA 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.522nd of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.927th of 31 |
| 7th of 3153.8% | Shot share | 48.2%22nd of 31 |
| 23rd of 3188.9% | Save percentage | 90.2%18th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 11th of 314–3 | Road vs home | 2–426th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–1 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.