Edmonton Oilers at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals3
- Evander KaneAssists2
- Zach HymanPoints3
Kraken- Jaden SchwartzGoals1
- Vince DunnAssists1
- Jaden SchwartzPoints1
Scoring summary
- P32:25Jaden Schwartz Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (6), Vince Dunn (11)4–1
- P119:42Dylan Holloway Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (2), Cody Ceci (3)4–0
- P118:40Zach Hyman Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Evander Kane (8)3–0
- P114:09Zach Hyman Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (9), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (7)2–0
- P19:56Zach Hyman Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Evander Kane (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:56Zach Hyman Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Evander Kane (7)EDM 1 – 0 SEA · EDM 45% → 61% +16EDM 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P114:09Zach Hyman Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (9), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (7)EDM 2 – 0 SEA · EDM 62% → 76% +15EDM 62% → 76%+15 pts
- P118:40Zach Hyman Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Evander Kane (8)EDM 3 – 0 SEA · EDM 78% → 89% +11EDM 78% → 89%+11 pts
- P119:42Dylan Holloway Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (2), Cody Ceci (3)EDM 4 – 0 SEA · EDM 89% → 95% +6EDM 89% → 95%+6 pts
- P32:25Jaden Schwartz Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (6), Vince Dunn (11)EDM 4 – 1 SEA · SEA <1% → 3% +2SEA <1% → 3%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Fair odds
- SEA -124
- EDM +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −8 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +44 Elo | SEA 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 2.726th of 31 |
| 30th of 314.2 | Goals allowed | 3.522nd of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.6 | Margin | −0.827th of 31 |
| 5th of 3154.1% | Shot share | 48.6%20th of 31 |
| 31st of 3186.2% | Save percentage | 90.5%14th of 31 |
| 28th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 29th of 311–5 | Road vs home | 2–323rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.