Anaheim Ducks at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Radko GudasGoals1
- Urho VaakanainenAssists2
- Radko GudasPoints2
Predators- Roman JosiGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists2
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:09Adam Henrique Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Urho Vaakanainen (3), Radko Gudas (2)3–2
- P34:11Radko Gudas Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (7), Urho Vaakanainen (2)2–2
- P217:28Cam Fowler Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Frank Vatrano (5), Mason McTavish (9)1–2
- P214:28Roman Josi Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (8), Ryan O'Reilly (6)0–2
- P21:03Filip Forsberg Goal (7) Batted, assists: Alexandre Carrier (5), Ryan O'Reilly (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:03Filip Forsberg Goal (7) Batted, assists: Alexandre Carrier (5), Ryan O'Reilly (5)ANA 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 53% → 70% +17NSH 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P214:28Roman Josi Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (8), Ryan O'Reilly (6)ANA 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 73% → 88% +15NSH 73% → 88%+15 pts
- P217:28Cam Fowler Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Frank Vatrano (5), Mason McTavish (9)ANA 1 – 2 NSH · ANA 10% → 25% +15ANA 10% → 25%+15 pts
- P34:11Radko Gudas Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (7), Urho Vaakanainen (2)ANA 2 – 2 NSH · ANA 22% → 48% +26ANA 22% → 48%+26 pts
- P316:09Adam Henrique Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Urho Vaakanainen (3), Radko Gudas (2)ANA 3 – 2 NSH · ANA 49% → 92% +43ANA 49% → 92%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 51%
- Fair odds
- NSH -118
- ANA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.0 – 3.2 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −5 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +5 Elo | NSH 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.215th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.423rd of 31 |
| 25th of 3147.5% | Shot share | 49.2%19th of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.8% | Save percentage | 90.4%14th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 2nd of 314–1 | Road vs home | 3–29th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.