Nashville Predators at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Michael McCarronGoals1
- Marc Del GaizoAssists1
- Michael McCarronPoints1
Flames- Nazem KadriGoals1
- Yegor SharangovichAssists2
- Nazem KadriPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:21Nazem Kadri Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (3), Connor Zary (2)2–4
- P36:24Blake Coleman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (5), Nick DeSimone (3)2–3
- P34:45Noah Hanifin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (2), Chris Tanev (2)2–2
- P215:06Dillon Dube Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (4), Nick DeSimone (2)2–1
- P114:34Kiefer Sherwood Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (7), Tommy Novak (4)2–0
- P14:35Michael McCarron Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Liam Foudy (2), Marc Del Gaizo (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:35Michael McCarron Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Liam Foudy (2), Marc Del Gaizo (2)NSH 1 – 0 CGY · NSH 46% → 61% +15NSH 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P114:34Kiefer Sherwood Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (7), Tommy Novak (4)NSH 2 – 0 CGY · NSH 63% → 77% +14NSH 63% → 77%+14 pts
- P215:06Dillon Dube Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (4), Nick DeSimone (2)NSH 2 – 1 CGY · CGY 14% → 31% +17CGY 14% → 31%+17 pts
- P34:45Noah Hanifin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (2), Chris Tanev (2)NSH 2 – 2 CGY · CGY 25% → 52% +27CGY 25% → 52%+27 pts
- P36:24Blake Coleman Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (5), Nick DeSimone (3)NSH 2 – 3 CGY · CGY 52% → 79% +27CGY 52% → 79%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 51%
- Fair odds
- CGY -118
- NSH +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −8 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +4 Elo | CGY 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.527th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.727th of 31 |
| 15th of 310.0 | Margin | −1.229th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.7% | Shot share | 53.5%8th of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.7% | Save percentage | 88.3%26th of 31 |
| 10th of 295–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 29 |
| 19th of 312–4 | Road vs home | 1–327th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.