Nashville Predators at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals2
- Tyson BarrieAssists2
- Filip ForsbergPoints2
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals3
- Mark ScheifeleAssists4
- Kyle ConnorPoints4
Scoring summary
- P316:44Kyle Connor Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (8), Mark Scheifele (11)3–6
- P316:16Philip Tomasino Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Tyson Barrie (7), Marc Del Gaizo (3)3–5
- P312:51Brenden Dillon Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (6), Morgan Barron (2)2–5
- P212:05Filip Forsberg Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Barrie (6)2–4
- P210:33Cole Perfetti Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (10), Kyle Connor (5)1–4
- P23:48Kyle Connor Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Mark Scheifele (9), Dylan DeMelo (5)1–3
- P21:05Kyle Connor Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (8), Alex Iafallo (7)1–2
- P16:43Filip Forsberg Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (5)1–1
- P14:04Mason Appleton Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (7), Nino Niederreiter (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:04Mason Appleton Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (7), Nino Niederreiter (5)NSH 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 55% → 69% +14WPG 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P16:43Filip Forsberg Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (5)NSH 1 – 1 WPG · NSH 31% → 45% +15NSH 31% → 45%+15 pts
- P21:05Kyle Connor Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (8), Alex Iafallo (7)NSH 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 54% → 71% +17WPG 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P23:48Kyle Connor Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Mark Scheifele (9), Dylan DeMelo (5)NSH 1 – 3 WPG · WPG 71% → 85% +14WPG 71% → 85%+14 pts
- P210:33Cole Perfetti Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (10), Kyle Connor (5)NSH 1 – 4 WPG · WPG 87% → 95% +8WPG 87% → 95%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 54%
- Fair odds
- WPG -122
- NSH +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −9 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WPG: Laurent Brossoit: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +30 Elo | WPG 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.315th of 31 |
| 12th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.521st of 31 |
| 17th of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.218th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.1% | Shot share | 54.2%7th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 88.9%23rd of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 24th of 312–5 | Road vs home | 2–320th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.