St. Louis Blues at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Alexey ToropchenkoGoals1
- Kevin HayesAssists1
- Pavel BuchnevichPoints1
Ducks- Mason McTavishGoals1
- Max JonesAssists1
- Mason McTavishPoints1
Scoring summary
- P28:47Mason McTavish Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Alex Killorn (3), Max Jones (3)3–1
- P25:39Alexey Toropchenko Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (9), Kevin Hayes (5)3–0
- P116:34Pavel Buchnevich Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (6), Scott Perunovich (1)2–0
- P19:25Jake Neighbours Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (6)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:25Jake Neighbours Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (6)STL 1 – 0 ANA · STL 41% → 57% +16STL 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P116:34Pavel Buchnevich Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (6), Scott Perunovich (1)STL 2 – 0 ANA · STL 59% → 74% +15STL 59% → 74%+15 pts
- P25:39Alexey Toropchenko Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (9), Kevin Hayes (5)STL 3 – 0 ANA · STL 78% → 90% +11STL 78% → 90%+11 pts
- P28:47Mason McTavish Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Alex Killorn (3), Max Jones (3)STL 3 – 1 ANA · ANA 9% → 20% +11ANA 9% → 20%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 61%
- Fair odds
- ANA -148
- STL +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.9 – 3.4 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +14 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +79 Elo | ANA 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 59.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.216th of 31 |
| 16th of 31+0.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 31 |
| 26th of 3147.5% | Shot share | 46.3%27th of 31 |
| 5th of 3192.1% | Save percentage | 91.0%12th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 26th of 312–6 | Road vs home | 3–524th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.