Florida Panthers at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Eetu LuostarinenGoals1
- Anton LundellAssists2
- Anton LundellPoints2
Ducks- Frank VatranoGoals1
- Cam FowlerAssists1
- Frank VatranoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P37:39Frank Vatrano Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (6), Cam Fowler (8)2–1
- P118:06Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (7), Nick Cousins (1)2–0
- P114:50Eetu Luostarinen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (6)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:50Eetu Luostarinen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (6)FLA 1 – 0 ANA · FLA 42% → 58% +17FLA 42% → 58%+17 pts
- P118:06Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (7), Nick Cousins (1)FLA 2 – 0 ANA · FLA 59% → 75% +16FLA 59% → 75%+16 pts
- P37:39Frank Vatrano Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (6), Cam Fowler (8)FLA 2 – 1 ANA · ANA 7% → 24% +18ANA 7% → 24%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 60%
- Fair odds
- ANA -146
- FLA +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.9 – 3.4 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +13 | FLA: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +70 Elo | ANA 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 59.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 31 |
| 10th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.318th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3155.0% | Shot share | 46.0%28th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.8%12th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 19th of 314–5 | Road vs home | 3–421st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.