Montreal Canadiens at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Alex NewhookGoals2
- Jake EvansAssists2
- Alex NewhookPoints2
Ducks- Mason McTavishGoals2
- Mason McTavishAssists1
- Mason McTavishPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:40Alex Newhook Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Evans (4)4–3
- P311:31Frank Vatrano Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (10), Cam Fowler (9)3–3
- P26:00Mason McTavish Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (6), Tristan Luneau (1)3–2
- P21:49Mike Matheson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (11), Justin Barron (2)3–1
- P20:53Mason McTavish Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Leo Carlsson (3), Pavel Mintyukov (10)2–1
- P16:37Kaiden Guhle Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jesse Ylönen (1), Jake Evans (3)2–0
- P15:59Alex Newhook Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (4), Brendan Gallagher (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:53Mason McTavish Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Leo Carlsson (3), Pavel Mintyukov (10)MTL 2 – 1 ANA · ANA 21% → 37% +15ANA 21% → 37%+15 pts
- P21:49Mike Matheson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (11), Justin Barron (2)MTL 3 – 1 ANA · MTL 63% → 79% +15MTL 63% → 79%+15 pts
- P26:00Mason McTavish Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (6), Tristan Luneau (1)MTL 3 – 2 ANA · ANA 19% → 35% +16ANA 19% → 35%+16 pts
- P311:31Frank Vatrano Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (10), Cam Fowler (9)MTL 3 – 3 ANA · ANA 18% → 52% +34ANA 18% → 52%+34 pts
- P316:40Alex Newhook Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Evans (4)MTL 4 – 3 ANA · MTL 49% → 94% +45MTL 49% → 94%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 58%
- Fair odds
- ANA -125
- MTL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.0 – 3.3 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +12 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +57 Elo | ANA 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 31 |
| 27th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 3.216th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.8 | Margin | −0.320th of 31 |
| 28th of 3145.7% | Shot share | 46.5%27th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 91.0%11th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 24th of 312–4 | Road vs home | 3–625th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.