Vegas Golden Knights at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Shea TheodoreGoals1
- Shea TheodoreAssists3
- Shea TheodorePoints4
Canadiens- Jesse YlonenGoals2
- Nick SuzukiAssists2
- Jesse YlonenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:06Justin Barron Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (10), Mike Matheson (10)6–5
- P318:48Mark Stone Goal (5) Wrap-around, assists: William Karlsson (11), Shea Theodore (12)6–4
- P318:04Jack Eichel Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (11), Mark Stone (12)5–4
- P216:07Shea Theodore Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (11), Mark Stone (11)4–4
- P211:53Jesse Ylönen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Pezzetta (2), Gustav Lindstrom (1)3–4
- P211:20Jonathan Marchessault Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (2), Michael Amadio (7)3–3
- P28:46Brayden McNabb Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (10), Jack Eichel (10)2–3
- P28:28Jesse Ylönen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none1–3
- P22:33Brett Howden Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (2)1–2
- P110:03Johnathan Kovacevic Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (5), Nick Suzuki (9)0–2
- P16:43Alex Newhook Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (8), Mike Matheson (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:43Alex Newhook Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (8), Mike Matheson (9)VGK 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 53% → 68% +15MTL 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P211:20Jonathan Marchessault Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (2), Michael Amadio (7)VGK 3 – 3 MTL · VGK 28% → 48% +20VGK 28% → 48%+20 pts
- P211:53Jesse Ylönen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Pezzetta (2), Gustav Lindstrom (1)VGK 3 – 4 MTL · MTL 52% → 72% +20MTL 52% → 72%+20 pts
- P216:07Shea Theodore Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (11), Mark Stone (11)VGK 4 – 4 MTL · VGK 26% → 48% +21VGK 26% → 48%+21 pts
- P318:04Jack Eichel Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (11), Mark Stone (12)VGK 5 – 4 MTL · VGK 49% → 98% +48VGK 49% → 98%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 48%
- Fair odds
- MTL -115
- VGK +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +15 | +1 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.37 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +16 Elo | VGK 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.2 | Goals allowed | 3.522nd of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+1.4 | Margin | −0.624th of 31 |
| 13th of 3150.7% | Shot share | 47.0%26th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3193.3% | Save percentage | 90.9%11th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 7th of 314–2 | Road vs home | 5–513th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 1–0 MTL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.