Montreal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Mike MathesonGoals1
- Mike MathesonAssists2
- Mike MathesonPoints3
Red Wings- J.T. CompherGoals1
- Ben ChiarotAssists1
- J.T. CompherPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:16Cole Caufield Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (7), Nick Suzuki (7)3–2
- P36:06J.T. Compher Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P30:26Nick Suzuki Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (6), Sean Monahan (6)2–1
- P216:44Christian Fischer Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Michael Rasmussen (3), Ben Chiarot (4)1–1
- P17:02Mike Matheson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:02Mike Matheson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (4)MTL 1 – 0 DET · MTL 44% → 60% +15MTL 44% → 60%+15 pts
- P216:44Christian Fischer Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Michael Rasmussen (3), Ben Chiarot (4)MTL 1 – 1 DET · DET 31% → 54% +23DET 31% → 54%+23 pts
- P30:26Nick Suzuki Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (6), Sean Monahan (6)MTL 2 – 1 DET · MTL 46% → 71% +24MTL 46% → 71%+24 pts
- P36:06J.T. Compher Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 2 – 2 DET · DET 25% → 53% +28DET 25% → 53%+28 pts
- OT4:16Cole Caufield Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (7), Nick Suzuki (7)MTL 3 – 2 DET · MTL 49% → >99% +51MTL 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 61%
- Fair odds
- DET -129
- MTL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.0 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +18 | MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · DET: James Reimer: team allows 0.45 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +78 Elo | DET 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.77th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 26th of 3146.1% | Shot share | 49.9%16th of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 90.5%15th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 27th of 311–3 | Road vs home | 4–313th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.