Boston Bruins at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- James van RiemsdykGoals1
- James van RiemsdykAssists1
- James van RiemsdykPoints2
Red Wings- David PerronGoals1
- David PerronAssists2
- David PerronPoints3
Scoring summary
- P314:11David Pastrnak Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Poitras (3), Hampus Lindholm (1)4–5
- P310:34Andrew Copp Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (6), David Perron (4)3–5
- P38:56David Perron Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (5), Jeff Petry (3)3–4
- P36:50Dylan Larkin Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (6), Alex DeBrincat (5)3–3
- P213:41Charlie Coyle Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (4), Parker Wotherspoon (1)3–2
- P29:59Jake Walman Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (10), Daniel Sprong (5)2–2
- P116:20Lucas Raymond Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: David Perron (3), Dylan Larkin (12)2–1
- P19:28Matthew Poitras Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (2), James van Riemsdyk (3)2–0
- P15:21James van Riemsdyk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (7), Pavel Zacha (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:21James van Riemsdyk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (7), Pavel Zacha (4)BOS 1 – 0 DET · BOS 46% → 61% +15BOS 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P29:59Jake Walman Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (10), Daniel Sprong (5)BOS 2 – 2 DET · DET 33% → 53% +20DET 33% → 53%+20 pts
- P213:41Charlie Coyle Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (4), Parker Wotherspoon (1)BOS 3 – 2 DET · BOS 47% → 69% +21BOS 47% → 69%+21 pts
- P36:50Dylan Larkin Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (6), Alex DeBrincat (5)BOS 3 – 3 DET · DET 23% → 52% +29DET 23% → 52%+29 pts
- P38:56David Perron Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (5), Jeff Petry (3)BOS 3 – 4 DET · DET 52% → 81% +30DET 52% → 81%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Fair odds
- DET -117
- BOS +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −12 | BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · DET: Ville Husso: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +7 Elo | BOS 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.66th of 31 |
| 1st of 311.6 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+1.6 | Margin | +0.67th of 31 |
| 14th of 3151.6% | Shot share | 49.3%19th of 31 |
| 1st of 3194.7% | Save percentage | 91.4%13th of 31 |
| 1st of 314–0 | Road vs home | 3–313th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–0 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.