Detroit Red Wings at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Michael RasmussenGoals1
- Ben ChiarotAssists2
- Ben ChiarotPoints2
Rangers- Vincent TrocheckGoals2
- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Vincent TrocheckPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:49Andrew Copp Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (7), Ville Husso (1)3–5
- P38:15Klim Kostin Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Ben Chiarot (3), Christian Fischer (2)2–5
- P37:55Michael Rasmussen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Chiarot (2), Jeff Petry (4)1–5
- P214:10Will Cuylle Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Zac Jones (1), Braden Schneider (2)0–5
- P211:21Artemi Panarin Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (2)0–4
- P28:15Vincent Trocheck Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (8), Chris Kreider (3)0–3
- P27:31Chris Kreider Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Erik Gustafsson (5), Artemi Panarin (13)0–2
- P11:40Vincent Trocheck Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:40Vincent Trocheck Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (4)DET 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 56% → 70% +14NYR 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P27:31Chris Kreider Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Erik Gustafsson (5), Artemi Panarin (13)DET 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 73% → 86% +14NYR 73% → 86%+14 pts
- P28:15Vincent Trocheck Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (8), Chris Kreider (3)DET 0 – 3 NYR · NYR 87% → 95% +8NYR 87% → 95%+8 pts
- P211:21Artemi Panarin Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (2)DET 0 – 4 NYR · NYR 95% → 99% +3NYR 95% → 99%+3 pts
- P313:49Andrew Copp Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (7), Ville Husso (1)DET 3 – 5 NYR · DET <1% → 1% +1DET <1% → 1%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 59%
- Fair odds
- NYR -126
- DET +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +9 | DET: Ville Husso: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +62 Elo | NYR 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.34th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.95th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.1% | Shot share | 48.0%23rd of 31 |
| 10th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 92.0%8th of 31 |
| 10th of 313–2 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.