New York Rangers at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints2
Wild- Mats ZuccarelloGoals1
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists1
- Mats ZuccarelloPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Matt Boldy Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Artemi Panarin Goal Backhand1–2
- SO0:00Mats Zuccarello Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- P36:40Chris Kreider Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (12), Erik Gustafsson (3)4–4
- P35:20Marco Rossi Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (8), Matt Boldy (4)3–4
- P31:41Mats Zuccarello Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jonas Brodin (5), Marcus Johansson (6)3–3
- P26:26Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (3), Marcus Foligno (4)3–2
- P25:57Ryan Hartman Goal (7) Poke, assists: Dakota Mermis (3), Mats Zuccarello (9)3–1
- P16:53Erik Gustafsson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Wheeler (1), Will Cuylle (1)3–0
- P15:52Artemi Panarin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (4), Alexis Lafrenière (1)2–0
- P13:36Jimmy Vesey Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Tyler Pitlick (1), Ryan Lindgren (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:36Jimmy Vesey Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Tyler Pitlick (1), Ryan Lindgren (1)NYR 1 – 0 MIN · NYR 47% → 62% +15NYR 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P26:26Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (3), Marcus Foligno (4)NYR 3 – 2 MIN · MIN 18% → 33% +15MIN 18% → 33%+15 pts
- P31:41Mats Zuccarello Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jonas Brodin (5), Marcus Johansson (6)NYR 3 – 3 MIN · MIN 27% → 52% +25MIN 27% → 52%+25 pts
- P35:20Marco Rossi Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (8), Matt Boldy (4)NYR 3 – 4 MIN · MIN 51% → 78% +27MIN 51% → 78%+27 pts
- P36:40Chris Kreider Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (12), Erik Gustafsson (3)NYR 4 – 4 MIN · NYR 21% → 49% +28NYR 21% → 49%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 44%
- Fair odds
- MIN -112
- NYR +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +23 | −23 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.57 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.58 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +41 Elo | NYR 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.59th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.0 | Goals allowed | 4.330th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+1.1 | Margin | −0.827th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.2% | Shot share | 47.0%23rd of 31 |
| 7th of 3192.4% | Save percentage | 88.4%28th of 31 |
| 3rd of 316–1 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.