Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights
Capitals- Dylan StromeGoals1
- John CarlsonAssists1
- Dylan StromePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:27Beck Malenstyn Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–3
- P319:11Connor McMichael Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: John Carlson (8), Rasmus Sandin (4)0–2
- P116:39Dylan Strome Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Sonny Milano (3)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:39Dylan Strome Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Sonny Milano (3)VGK 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 54% → 70% +16WSH 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P319:11Connor McMichael Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: John Carlson (8), Rasmus Sandin (4)VGK 0 – 2 WSH · WSH >99% → >99% +0WSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:27Beck Malenstyn Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVGK 0 – 3 WSH · WSH >99% → 100% +0WSH >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 53%
- Fair odds
- WSH -120
- VGK +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +11 | VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +18 Elo | WSH 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.9 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.1 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+1.7 | Margin | −0.422nd of 31 |
| 13th of 3150.6% | Shot share | 49.5%16th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3193.3% | Save percentage | 90.4%13th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 2nd of 314–1 | Road vs home | 4–414th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.