Washington Capitals at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals2
- John CarlsonAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints2
Islanders- Alexander RomanovGoals1
- Bo HorvatAssists1
- Alexander RomanovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:57Alex Ovechkin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Beck Malenstyn (1), Rasmus Sandin (3)4–1
- P219:20Aliaksei Protas Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Phillips (3), Connor McMichael (3)3–1
- P213:05Nic Dowd Goal (1) Batted, assists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel (2), John Carlson (7)2–1
- P119:17Alexander Romanov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (6)1–1
- P19:18Alex Ovechkin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeny Kuznetsov (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:18Alex Ovechkin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeny Kuznetsov (5)WSH 1 – 0 NYI · WSH 41% → 57% +16WSH 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P119:17Alexander Romanov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (6)WSH 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 41% → 58% +18NYI 41% → 58%+18 pts
- P213:05Nic Dowd Goal (1) Batted, assists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel (2), John Carlson (7)WSH 2 – 1 NYI · WSH 43% → 65% +21WSH 43% → 65%+21 pts
- P219:20Aliaksei Protas Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Phillips (3), Connor McMichael (3)WSH 3 – 1 NYI · WSH 68% → 86% +18WSH 68% → 86%+18 pts
- P319:57Alex Ovechkin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Beck Malenstyn (1), Rasmus Sandin (3)WSH 4 – 1 NYI · WSH 100% → 100% +0WSH 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 62%
- Fair odds
- NYI -149
- WSH +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 3.4 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +22 | WSH: Hunter Shepard: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.55 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +88 Elo | NYI 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.3 | Goals scored | 2.723rd of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.319th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.7 | Margin | −0.524th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.1% | Shot share | 45.0%29th of 31 |
| 20th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 91.9%8th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 31 |
| 12th of 312–2 | Road vs home | 2–527th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 NYI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.