Minnesota Wild at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Joel Eriksson EkGoals1
- Joel Eriksson EkAssists1
- Joel Eriksson EkPoints2
Islanders- Noah DobsonGoals1
- Casey CizikasAssists1
- Oliver WahlstromPoints1
Scoring summary
- P37:32Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Pat Maroon (7)4–2
- P36:50Kirill Kaprizov Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (10), Marcus Johansson (7)3–2
- P212:03Vinni Lettieri Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (5), Brock Faber (4)2–2
- P28:34Oliver Wahlstrom Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre Engvall (6), Sebastian Aho (2)1–2
- P111:00Noah Dobson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (3), Cal Clutterbuck (3)1–1
- P10:19Pat Maroon Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (6), Jake Middleton (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:00Noah Dobson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (3), Cal Clutterbuck (3)MIN 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 40% → 56% +16NYI 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P28:34Oliver Wahlstrom Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre Engvall (6), Sebastian Aho (2)MIN 1 – 2 NYI · NYI 55% → 73% +19NYI 55% → 73%+19 pts
- P212:03Vinni Lettieri Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (5), Brock Faber (4)MIN 2 – 2 NYI · MIN 26% → 46% +20MIN 26% → 46%+20 pts
- P36:50Kirill Kaprizov Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (10), Marcus Johansson (7)MIN 3 – 2 NYI · MIN 47% → 76% +29MIN 47% → 76%+29 pts
- P37:32Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Pat Maroon (7)MIN 4 – 2 NYI · MIN 77% → 94% +17MIN 77% → 94%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 61%
- Fair odds
- NYI -129
- MIN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 3.3 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +30 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.75 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +80 Elo | NYI 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 31 |
| 29th of 314.3 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.6 | Margin | −0.120th of 31 |
| 19th of 3148.9% | Shot share | 44.7%29th of 31 |
| 28th of 3187.9% | Save percentage | 92.7%5th of 31 |
| 27th of 311–4 | Road vs home | 2–425th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.