New York Islanders at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Simon HolmstromGoals1
- Jean-Gabriel PageauAssists1
- Brock NelsonPoints1
Bruins- Charlie CoyleGoals3
- David PastrnakAssists2
- Charlie CoylePoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:39Charlie Coyle Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (10), Brad Marchand (7)2–5
- P39:26Charlie Coyle Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (6), Trent Frederic (2)2–4
- P33:33David Pastrnak Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (3), Brad Marchand (6)2–3
- P32:50Simon Holmstrom Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (5)2–2
- P26:06Charlie Coyle Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (5), David Pastrnak (9)1–2
- P117:23Brock Nelson Goal (6) Batted, assists: Noah Dobson (8), Mathew Barzal (7)1–1
- P114:05Trent Frederic Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (5), Charlie Coyle (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:05Trent Frederic Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (5), Charlie Coyle (7)NYI 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 56% → 71% +16BOS 56% → 71%+16 pts
- P117:23Brock Nelson Goal (6) Batted, assists: Noah Dobson (8), Mathew Barzal (7)NYI 1 – 1 BOS · NYI 28% → 45% +16NYI 28% → 45%+16 pts
- P26:06Charlie Coyle Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (5), David Pastrnak (9)NYI 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 55% → 73% +18BOS 55% → 73%+18 pts
- P32:50Simon Holmstrom Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (5)NYI 2 – 2 BOS · NYI 22% → 47% +24NYI 22% → 47%+24 pts
- P33:33David Pastrnak Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (3), Brad Marchand (6)NYI 2 – 3 BOS · BOS 53% → 78% +25BOS 53% → 78%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 62%
- Fair odds
- BOS -130
- NYI +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −19 | −1 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.47 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +86 Elo | BOS 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.315th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 1.91st of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.3 | Margin | +1.33rd of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.0% | Shot share | 50.1%14th of 31 |
| 6th of 3192.2% | Save percentage | 93.9%1st of 31 |
| 6th of 312–1 | Road vs home | 5–13rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.