Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Nicolas Aube-KubelGoals1
- Tom WilsonAssists2
- Nicolas Aube-KubelPoints2
Devils- Dawson MercerGoals1
- Michael McLeodAssists1
- Timo MeierPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:09Evgeny Kuznetsov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Johansen (1), Tom Wilson (5)4–2
- P39:12Dawson Mercer Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Toffoli (6), Akira Schmid (2)3–2
- P37:13Timo Meier Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Michael McLeod (3), John Marino (9)3–1
- P26:34Evgeny Kuznetsov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (4), Alex Ovechkin (7)3–0
- P110:37Beck Malenstyn Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel (1), Martin Fehervary (2)2–0
- P110:22Nicolas Aube-Kubel Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (2), Sonny Milano (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:22Nicolas Aube-Kubel Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (2), Sonny Milano (2)WSH 1 – 0 NJ · WSH 45% → 61% +16WSH 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P110:37Beck Malenstyn Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel (1), Martin Fehervary (2)WSH 2 – 0 NJ · WSH 61% → 75% +14WSH 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P26:34Evgeny Kuznetsov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (4), Alex Ovechkin (7)WSH 3 – 0 NJ · WSH 81% → 91% +10WSH 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P37:13Timo Meier Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Michael McLeod (3), John Marino (9)WSH 3 – 1 NJ · NJ 1% → 6% +5NJ 1% → 6%+5 pts
- P39:12Dawson Mercer Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Toffoli (6), Akira Schmid (2)WSH 3 – 2 NJ · NJ 5% → 21% +16NJ 5% → 21%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 56%
- Fair odds
- NJ -123
- WSH +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −5 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +40 Elo | NJ 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.2 | Goals scored | 3.92nd of 31 |
| 13th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.728th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.9 | Margin | +0.213th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.0% | Shot share | 51.6%11th of 31 |
| 21st of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 88.9%23rd of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 22nd of 311–2 | Road vs home | 3–29th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–0 NJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.