Calgary Flames at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Connor ZaryGoals1
- Connor ZaryAssists1
- Connor ZaryPoints2
Canadiens- Christian DvorakAssists1
- Christian DvorakPoints1
Scoring summary
- P213:07Connor Zary Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (4), Martin Pospisil (2)2–1
- P22:52Gustav Lindstrom Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (1), Juraj Slafkovsky (2)1–1
- P22:35Nazem Kadri Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Zary (3), Nikita Zadorov (5)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:35Nazem Kadri Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Zary (3), Nikita Zadorov (5)CGY 1 – 0 MTL · CGY 46% → 64% +18CGY 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P22:52Gustav Lindstrom Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (1), Juraj Slafkovsky (2)CGY 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 36% → 54% +18MTL 36% → 54%+18 pts
- P213:07Connor Zary Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (4), Martin Pospisil (2)CGY 2 – 1 MTL · CGY 46% → 68% +21CGY 46% → 68%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 56%
- Fair odds
- MTL -124
- CGY +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.3 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −5 | CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +45 Elo | MTL 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 3.623rd of 31 |
| 29th of 31−1.1 | Margin | −0.624th of 31 |
| 10th of 3152.7% | Shot share | 46.4%27th of 31 |
| 28th of 3188.5% | Save percentage | 90.7%11th of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 27th of 312–6 | Road vs home | 5–411th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.