Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- A.J. GreerGoals1
- Blake ColemanAssists1
- A.J. GreerPoints1
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals2
- William NylanderAssists1
- William NylanderPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Max Domi Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Mitchell Marner Goal Backhand1–2
- SO0:00Yegor Sharangovich Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- P33:22Martin Pospisil Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (4), Blake Coleman (2)4–4
- P212:22A.J. Greer Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (4), Rasmus Andersson (3)3–4
- P25:33Nikita Zadorov Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (4), Jonathan Huberdeau (5)2–4
- P24:45John Tavares Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (12), Morgan Rielly (9)1–4
- P21:06William Nylander Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P18:18Calle Jarnkrok Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Max Domi (7), Nicholas Robertson (2)1–2
- P17:02Connor Zary Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (6)1–1
- P13:01William Nylander Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:01William Nylander Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCGY 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 55% → 69% +14TOR 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P17:02Connor Zary Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (6)CGY 1 – 1 TOR · CGY 31% → 45% +15CGY 31% → 45%+15 pts
- P18:18Calle Jarnkrok Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Max Domi (7), Nicholas Robertson (2)CGY 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 55% → 70% +15TOR 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P212:22A.J. Greer Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (4), Rasmus Andersson (3)CGY 3 – 4 TOR · CGY 12% → 27% +14CGY 12% → 27%+14 pts
- P33:22Martin Pospisil Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (4), Blake Coleman (2)CGY 4 – 4 TOR · CGY 22% → 47% +25CGY 22% → 47%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Fair odds
- TOR -123
- CGY +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −11 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +39 Elo | TOR 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.510th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.727th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−0.9 | Margin | −0.219th of 31 |
| 5th of 3154.7% | Shot share | 51.3%12th of 31 |
| 26th of 3188.4% | Save percentage | 89.1%22nd of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 22nd of 312–4 | Road vs home | 3–418th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.